Abstract by David Arthur
A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Change Point Model for Identifying Urban Heat Islands in Utah
An urban heat island (UHI) is an urban or metropolitan area that is signicantly warmer than the areas surrounding it due to an increase in human activity, such as industrialization or urbanization. Over the years, research has shown that UHI's are related to many negative health outcomes for humans and for this reason it is becoming increasingly important to identify them and understand their effects. We propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal change point model as way of identifying changes in temperature trends over time at different locations across Utah using daily maximum temperature data from the Utah State University Climate Center (USUCC). We discuss how this model can be used to identify both the number of change points as well as periods in time at which these changes were occuring.