Abstract by Lynsie Warr
Shane Reese, William Christensen
Bayesian Modelling of the Probability of Daily Precipitation in High Mountain Asia
Glacier movement in high mountain Asia has significant impacts on climate and on local populations. One primary factor influencing glacial movement is the evolution of recent precipitation patterns. Statistical modelling of precipitation in these areas can improve our understanding of glacial movement to better foresee potential impacts. This study utilizes basic Bayesian statistical methods to construct prior and posterior distributions for High Mountain Asia precipitation data (based on a binomial likelihood function). By doing so we can estimate the probabilities associated with daily rainfall events within specific susceptible regions.