BYU

Abstract by Rebecca Flores

Personal Infomation


Presenter's Name

Rebecca Flores

Co-Presenters

Zach Chase
Drew Johnston

Degree Level

Masters

Co-Authors

Zach Chase
Drew Johnston

Abstract Infomation


Department

Mathematics

Faculty Advisor

Michael Dorff

Title

Validating Metrics for Stock Cycle Prediction, Part 1

Abstract

Our research team worked in conjunction with a hedge fund company, NCH Capital Inc., to validate metrics for stock prediction and to discover anomalies in their data to help understand stock market behavior in 2016. Typically, a hedge fund develops a portfolio based on growth indicators or value indicators. NCH Capital has a growth-based portfolio. Growth portfolios have outperformed value portfolios almost every year of the past two decades. However, in 2016 value-based portfolios significantly outperformed growth-based portfolios. Knowing when this change in market behavior will occur would be incredibly profitable for investing. We are working to uncover potential indicators of these market trends. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of our efforts to validate some anonymized metrics that NCH Capital uses for stock cycle prediction.