Abstract by William Melville
Including Batter Sprint Speed in the Calculation of the Intrinsic Value of a Batted Ball and Other Baseball Research
A presentation of the process used to create two different models to define the intrinsic value of a batted ball. The first model maps a batted ball’s speed, vertical angle, and horizontal angle to an intrinsic value. This first model has a tendency to underrate fast runners and overrate slow runners. Thus, the second model addresses this tendency by including the batter’s sprint speed in the mapping to an intrinsic value. Visual representations of both mappings are presented. The accuracy and reliability of both intrinsic statistics are compared, and it is determined that the sprint speed intrinsic value maintains the accuracy and reliability of the non-sprint speed value. Additionally, it is determined that the sprint speed intrinsic statistic underrates fast runners and overrates slow runners less frequently and by a smaller margin than the non-sprint speed intrinsic statistic. Other baseball related research projects, including a pitch intrinsic value and research related to rare offensive events, are briefly discussed.