BYU

Abstract by Brent Mabey

Personal Infomation


Presenter's Name

Brent Mabey

Co-Presenters

None

Degree Level

Masters

Co-Authors

None

Abstract Infomation


Department

Statistics

Faculty Advisor

Shane Reese, William Christensen

Title

Gaussian Processes to Validate Precipitation Models

Abstract

Precipitation around High Mountain Asia can vary wildly in both space and time, and so it is of interest to develop a computer model which captures the precipitation patterns.  We utilize Gaussian Processes to emulate and validate a computer model simulation of rainfall in High Mountain Asia.  First, we model the computer simulation as a Gaussian Process to produce estimates of the simulation at arbitrary points.  Next, we model the discrepancy between the simulation and observed data as a separate Gaussian Process, allowing us to compute the bias of the computer simulation at arbitrary points.  This model is put into a Bayesian framework to estimate the unknown parameters within it.  Discrepancy surfaces are produced and used to determine the accuracy and validity of the computer model.