Abstract by Bryce Berrett
Tsunami Mitigation Hazard Maps and Models
Historical records and plate motion measurements indicate that enough elastic strain has accumulated along the 2000 km long Java Trench to produce a 9.0-9.6 Mw megathrust earthquake and Tsunami just off the coast of the World and Indonesia’s most densely populated islands where little mitigation efforts or preparations have been undertaken.
Tsunami modeling was done using software (MOST) from NOA to make inundation maps and animations that can have been used for instruction and mitigation efforts. Inundation areas were overlaid with population data to give estimates of and pinpoint population at risk. Many of these maps and animations were shared with local governments, schools, and organizations in Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumba, and the Leti islands this last Summer (2017) as part of an inter-disciplinary, multi-university research trip.
Model results indicate that up to 6,000,000 people live within at-risk areas along just the Java trench alone and that most areas have as little as 20 minutes to evacuate after an earthquake. This finding emphasizes the importance of a focus on the 20-20-20 principle of self-evacuation we have adopted.