BYU

Abstract by Jacob Merrell

Personal Infomation


Presenter's Name

Jacob Merrell

Co-Presenters

None

Degree Level

Masters

Co-Authors

None

Abstract Infomation


Department

Statistics

Faculty Advisor

Dennis Tolley

Title

Box Office Prediction

Abstract

The movie industry grosses billions of dollars each year. Predicting how much movies gross at the box office could help studios decide which movies to make, and be able to project profits. This study uses movie data from The Numbers website to predict inflation-adjusted box office gross. Data for more than 20,000 movies was gathered from the website; only recent data is used in this analysis to provide the most accurate predictions. Subsetting techniques are used for variable selection. The model fit and accuracy of the predictions are calculated in this analysis.  Bootstrapping techniques are used to test the predictive power.  Areas of improvement for future research are explored.