BYU

Abstract by Lynsie Warr

Personal Infomation


Presenter's Name

Lynsie Warr

Co-Presenters

None

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Co-Authors

None

Abstract Infomation


Department

Statistics

Faculty Advisor

Shane Reese, William Christensen

Title

Bayesian Modelling of the Probability of Daily Precipitation in High Mountain Asia

Abstract

Glacier movement in high mountain Asia has significant impacts on climate and on local populations. One primary factor influencing glacial movement is the evolution of recent precipitation patterns. Statistical modelling of precipitation in these areas can improve our understanding of glacial movement to better foresee potential impacts. This study utilizes basic Bayesian statistical methods to construct prior and posterior distributions for High Mountain Asia precipitation data (based on a binomial likelihood function). By doing so we can estimate the probabilities associated with daily rainfall events within specific susceptible regions.